By Warren Meyer
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Additional info for A Skeptical Layman’s Guide to Anthropogenic Global Warming
Since not even the most aggressive AGW supporter Est. 5C. 4 degrees C. 6 high end. 0. 5C from warming over the next century. 0 2. 5C, numbers far larger than I have seen anyone suggest. Remember that the IPCC classifies our understanding of this cooling effect, if any, as “low” But in fact, even the IPCC itself admits that its models assume higher sensitivity than the historically observed sensitivity. According to the fourth IPCC report, a number of studies have tried to get at the sensitivity historically (going back to periods where SO2 does not cloud the picture).
In the A1B case, for example, net worldwide ice melt raises oceans by about 4 inches in the next hundred years. This last conclusion may seem crazy to anyone who has watched the media of late or seen Mr. Gore’s movie. Images of ice crashing into the ocean and sea ice retreating are common fodder for global warming visuals. But the fact is that ice, like everything else in climate, is complicated. • North Pole: Arctic sea ice melting is totally irrelevant to ocean surface levels. Since the ice floats, even a 100% melting of the Arctic ice will not change sea level one bit, just as ice melting in your glass of water does not cause your glass to overflow.
Dr. Pielke explains summarizes the consequences on his web site: Humans are significantly altering the global climate, but in a variety of diverse ways beyond the radiative effect of carbon dioxide. The IPCC assessments have been too conservative in recognizing the importance of these human climate forcings as they alter regional and global climate. These assessments have also not communicated the inability of the models to accurately forecast the spread of possibilities of future climate. The forecasts, therefore, do not provide any skill in quantifying the impact of different mitigation strategies on the actual climate response that would occur.